As I sit here analyzing the potential 2019 NBA Finals MVP candidates, I can't help but draw parallels to the boxing world that Penalosa mentioned in that interview about Concepcion being a tough test for the young Llover. Just like in boxing, the NBA Finals present a brutal test of skill, endurance, and mental toughness where only the strongest emerge victorious. Having followed basketball for over fifteen years and written extensively about sports analytics, I've developed a pretty good sense for these things, though I'll admit my predictions don't always hit the mark.
The conversation around potential MVP candidates this year is particularly fascinating because we're looking at what could be a historically competitive series. My money's on Kevin Durant to take home the honors, and I'll tell you why. The man's been absolutely surgical in these playoffs, averaging 34.2 points per game with a true shooting percentage that's just mind-boggling. When the game slows down in the half-court during Finals matchups, his ability to create and make difficult shots becomes absolutely priceless. I've watched him dismantle defenses single-handedly too many times to bet against him now. Still, Stephen Curry presents a compelling case - his gravitational pull on defenses creates opportunities that don't even show up in the box score. The Warriors' offense operates differently when he's on the floor, and if he has one of those explosive shooting performances in a close-out game, the narrative could easily swing his way.
Looking at the Eastern Conference representative, whether it's Giannis Antetokounmpo or Kawhi Leonard, the dynamics shift considerably. Giannis has been a force of nature this postseason, and I've personally never seen a player with his combination of size and agility. His 29.7 points and 13.2 rebounds per game in the playoffs are video game numbers, but the Raptors series exposed some real concerns about his half-court effectiveness against disciplined defenses. Kawhi, on the other hand, has that championship pedigree having won Finals MVP back in 2014. His two-way impact is something special - I've charted his defensive possessions and the man simply doesn't take plays off. His 31.8 points per game in the playoffs while maintaining elite defense is the kind of dual-threat performance that voters absolutely love.
The betting odds from various sportsbooks tell an interesting story here. Durant currently sits around +180, with Curry at +220, and Kawhi at +300 if the Raptors make it. Giannis is a bit further back at +450, which honestly feels a bit disrespectful given his regular season MVP-caliber performance. But here's what the casual fan might not understand - Finals MVP voting tends to favor narrative as much as pure statistics. If the series goes six or seven games, voters often reward the player who had the most memorable moments in the clinching game. I've seen this happen time and again where a player puts up better overall numbers but loses out to someone who had a signature performance in the final game.
My personal take, after watching nearly every playoff game this season? This feels like Durant's to lose. He's been here before, he knows what it takes, and his skill set translates perfectly to the high-pressure environment of the Finals. There's a certain cold-blooded efficiency to his game that separates him when the lights are brightest. I remember watching his performance in Game 3 of the 2017 Finals where he hit that iconic three-pointer over LeBron - that's the kind of moment that defines legacies and wins awards. Still, basketball is unpredictable, and that's why we love it. If Curry goes nuclear for a game or two, or if Kawhi puts together another superhuman two-way performance like he did against Philadelphia, we could be looking at a very different conversation. The beauty of sports is that nothing is guaranteed, and that's what makes these predictions both exciting and humbling. Whatever happens, we're in for some spectacular basketball that will give us plenty to talk about for years to come.